At MJ’s recent Economic Outlook, our team shared perspectives on the forces shaping today’s business and benefits landscape—from rising healthcare costs to evolving insurance market dynamics and emerging retirement considerations. In this series, we’re breaking down key takeaways from our subject matter experts to help employers better understand what’s changing, what to watch, and how to prepare for what’s ahead. Here, Aaron Parker unpacks why the P&C market is no longer simply “hard or soft”—and what that means for your organization.
For years, the Property & Casualty insurance market has been easy to describe: it’s either hard or soft.
Today, that’s no longer the case.
The market has become more nuanced—where conditions vary significantly depending on the line of coverage. In reality, it’s both hard and soft at the same time—it just depends on where you sit.
A MARKET THAT’S NO LONGER MOVING IN ONE DIRECTION
Historically, insurance lines moved together. When the market hardened, rates increased across the board—and when it softened, relief was universal.
That relationship has broken down. Recent data highlights just how differently lines are behaving:
- Property premiums decreased by approximately 5.5%
- Commercial auto increased by about 5.8%
- General liability and umbrella rose between 2.5% and 5%
- Workers’ compensation decreased by roughly 3.7%
For employers, this means strategy can no longer be one size fits all.
PROPERTY IS STABILIZING—BUT RISK HASN’T GONE AWAY
After several challenging years, we’re seeing signs of stabilization—and even improvement—on the property side. Capacity has returned to the market, competition is increasing, and new entrants—particularly from London, Bermuda, and alternative capital sources—are creating more options for buyers.
As a result, many organizations are seeing:
- Rate reductions
- Broader coverage availability
- More favorable deductible and retention structures
That’s encouraging news—but it doesn’t mean risk has gone away. It just means the dynamics have shifted.
CASUALTY REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
At the same time, casualty continues to face significant challenges. The primary issue is loss severity, driven by:
- Social inflation
- Nuclear verdicts
- Litigation funding
- Long-tail claims
- Ongoing auto exposure risks
Attorney involvement is also playing a role, with industry sources suggesting that 50% to 80% of auto liability bodily injury claims involve legal representation.
The result: continued upward pressure on casualty pricing, even as other areas begin to ease.
A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN RISK THINKING
What’s changed isn’t just pricing—it’s how carriers think about risk.
On the property side, the focus has shifted from severity to frequency. Carriers aren’t typically dealing with a single catastrophic event driving losses but multiple smaller, more frequent events like hailstorms, tornado outbreaks, and other weather patterns.
On the casualty side, the opposite challenge prevails.
It’s no longer just about how often a claim occurs—it’s about the uncertainty of the outcome. Modeling potential jury behavior, litigation trends, and emerging risks like AI introduces a level of unpredictability that’s difficult to quantify.
That difference is a big reason we’re seeing the market diverge the way it has.
WHAT UNDERWRITERS ARE LOOKING FOR NOW
In today’s environment, organizations have more influence than they might think—but it requires focus.
On the property side, underwriters are prioritizing resilience—specifically, how well an organization can respond to and recover from a loss. That includes:
- Physical resilience (e.g., roof, fire protection, backup power)
- Operational resilience (cyber readiness, redundancies, suppliers)
- Financial resilience (business continuity and planning)
On the casualty side, it’s about demonstrating strong risk discipline:
- Training and hiring practices
- Fleet and safety controls
- Vendor management
- Executive-level ownership of risk
Organizations that actively manage these areas are consistently viewed more favorably by underwriters.
AI: A NEW LAYER OF OPPORTUNITY—AND RISK
AI is beginning to shape the P&C landscape in two ways. First, carriers are leveraging it to improve efficiency in underwriting, claims, and data analysis—potentially helping manage costs over time. At the same time, AI introduces new exposures across cyber, professional liability, employment practices, and more—many of which are still evolving from a coverage standpoint.
It’s an area that will continue to develop—and one organizations should be actively monitoring.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The biggest shift in today’s P&C market isn’t just pricing—it’s complexity. Different lines are behaving differently, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. Organizations that take a more targeted, proactive approach—strengthening resilience, improving operations, and understanding where the market is headed—will be in a stronger position moving forward.
That’s where having the right partner matters.
At MJ, we work closely with organizations to navigate these dynamics, align risk strategies with current market conditions, and prepare for what’s ahead.
If you’re evaluating your program or planning for your next renewal, connect with MJ to start a more strategic conversation.
